“When we are feeling uncertain, we are more likely to try to make sense out of situations. Conspiracy theories then become more appealing because they provide answers and give us a sense of understanding.”
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I have been researching belief in conspiracy theories since long before the COVID-19 pandemic, but I was surprised by just how much interest there has been in conspiracy theories over the last 18 months. However, when we look at previous research into why people might believe in conspiracy theories, there is no wonder really that the pandemic has created an optimum environment for these beliefs to flourish.
Conspiracy theories are defined as explanations of important events which attribute the cause of these events to secret plots from powerful malevolent groups. COVID-19 conspiracy theories range from positing that the virus is caused by 5G electromagnetic waves, and this is being kept secret, to being a bioweapon designed in a Chinese laboratory. Belief in these conspiracy theories has been reported to be widespread, with a YouGov poll in October 2020 reporting that over one in five believed that the virus had been deliberately exaggerated, and over one in four believed that the virus had been deliberately created and spread by the Chinese Government. So why are these conspiracy theories so tempting?
Appealing to our epistemic motives
One reason conspiracy theories are spreading during the pandemic could be because they appeal to our epistemic motives. This refers to our human desire for accuracy, understanding and certainty. We like to know exactly what is happening and to understand why, so when things feel uncertain it can be very uncomfortable. However, during the last 18 months, things have felt very uncertain. Conspiracy theories can be more attractive during these times as they can provide us with that explanation that we want .
Similarly, when we are feeling uncertain, we are more likely to try to make sense out of situations. Conspiracy theories then become more appealing because they provide answers and give us a sense of understanding. Supporting this, researchers have found that those who are currently feeling more uncertain are more likely to endorse COVID-19 related conspiracy theories. So, when our epistemic needs are disrupted by the uncertainty of the pandemic, conspiracy theories can flourish as they can attribute blame to a specific target, for example the government.
Appealing to our existential motives
A further reason why people could be turning to conspiracy theories during the pandemic is because they appeal to our existential needs. This is our human need for control and security and unfortunately during the last 18 months people may have been feeling like control over aspects of their life has been reduced. Research shows that when people are put in situations in experiments where they are made to feel like they lack control they are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. Similarly, when people feel powerless and anxious, conspiracy beliefs increase. Thus, conspiracy theories about COVID-19 could be spreading because we are feeling like we have less control than usual, and we are feeling more powerless and anxious about the future. Supporting this, research has shown that increased belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories is positively associated with feeling more anxious.
We’re only human after all!
As humans we fall victim to our brain relatively often. One cognitive bias which helps us understand belief in conspiracy theories is known as proportionality bias, which is our human assumption that big consequences must have big causes. When something consequential happens, people engage in cause-consequence ‘matching’ whereby events which evoke big consequences are assumed to have big causes. In a research study, participants read a fictional passage about how a man tried to shoot the President, and one group of participants were informed that the assassination was successful while the other group of participants were informed that the shot missed, and the President survived. Participants were then asked about their predictions of the cause of the event. Findings showed participants were more likely to suggest that a conspiracy theory was the cause of the event when the President was killed than when the shot missed and he survived, demonstrating the proportionality bias. Conspiracy theories around COVID-19 could therefore be tempting as they provide a ‘big cause’ (rather than ‘just a virus’) to the current world-changing consequences.
These are just some thoughts as to why people could be susceptible to conspiracy theories at the moment and why they spread so quickly. It is important to note that COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs can be dangerous; for example, anti-vaccine conspiracy beliefs are associated with the rejection of COVID-19 vaccines and belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories is associated with reduced social distancing and reduced preventative measures, for example, wearing a mask and avoiding larger gatherings. Therefore, it is important to continue to research why these beliefs might be tempting and consequently what we could do to address them.
Darel’s research is focused on belief in conspiracy theories and includes factors associated with why people may endorse conspiracy theories and what the social psychological consequences of harbouring these beliefs may be. Darel is also specifically interested in anti-vaccine conspiracy beliefs and researches how intervention tools could address these beliefs.
Psychology at Nottingham Trent University 